Methodology of survival analyses

The life span of a joint prosthesis is the time between implantation of a primary prosthesis and the time of the first revision. However, patients may die before the prosthesis needs to be revised (Figure).

Link between primary and revision arthroplasties

In order to assess a prosthesis’ life span, follow-up time of all primary prostheses was examined. This was done by linking revision arthroplasties to the primary arthroplasties in the LROI by means of the encrypted Citizen Service Number (BSN). In this way, the correct revision arthroplasty can be linked anonymously to a primary arthroplasty. In about 11% of the arthroplasties, the encrypted BSN was not entered into the system, mainly in the first years of registration. Links between these primary and revision arthroplasties were established based on the LROI hospital number and the LROI patient number. As such, revision arthroplasties have been linked to primary arthroplasties of a patient when the patient underwent primary and revision arthroplasty on the same joint in the same hospital.

Kaplan Meier survival analysis

Survival of a prosthesis may be determined in various ways. Traditionally, the Kaplan Meier method is used. This method was developed for situations with one possible end point (such as death of the patient). However, in order to calculate survival of a prosthesis at least two end points are important: revision of the prosthesis and death of the patient. The Kaplan Meier method estimates the proportion of failed prostheses if patients would live on forever. However, a number of patients dies before the prosthesis requires revision. Consequently, fewer revisions are carried out than could be expected based on the model. That is why this method overrates the chance of revision.

Competing risk survival analysis

The competing risk method allows monitoring for several end points. When an end point occurs (such as death), other end points will no longer be available (such as prosthesis revision). The cumulative incidence (summed occurrence of an end point) will be calculated. Death of a patient is a final end point, the prosthesis will no longer be revised and this finalizes the period that a prosthesis lasts. The time at risk will be the period from primary implantation to death.

Method comparison

In order to get a clearer picture of the difference in results between the Kaplan Meier method and competing risk method we have calculated the revision percentage within 12 years using both methods. The revision percentage was calculated for patients who underwent a total hip arthroplasty according to age group over the period 2007-2020.

This comparison shows that the revision percentage calculated by means of the Kaplan Meier method results in a higher chance of revision within 12 years. The difference is more pronounced in groups of patients with a higher chance of the competing event (death of the patient), as we can see in the groups of elderly patients (Table). This difference is still relatively minor, but will increase as follow-up extends. Consequently, this Annual Report estimates the chance of revision of a prosthesis by means of the competing risk method. However, for comparability with other arthroplasty registries Kaplan Meier revision rates are also shown.